Market to 206 doors. Or market to 25.
Doors per deal: how many properties you market to close one deal. It is how you rank every list, score, and ZIP before you spend.
The blind pull is the number to beat. Anything well below it is a real edge.
Don't pull 10,000 records from PropStream and just blindly market to it. Spend the time to do this process.
Elite, Strong, Volume. Know the band before you pull the list.
Three bands sort every pull by effort. The band decides how you work the list, not whether it can work.
Doors per deal. Same county, same six months. Only the pull changed.
The efficiency ladder.
Every step up the AI cutoff buys efficiency and costs coverage. Drag the cutoff and watch both move.
Precision costs coverage. AI 90+ is 8.2x more efficient but holds 12.6% of Knox deals. The pyramid's coverage tiers exist for the rest.
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Effort is half the picture. Payoff is the other half.
Plot effort against median gross and the traps show themselves.
The negative-margin trap
Bad Credit + Out-of-State runs 10.4 doors per deal and loses $5k per deal. Sharp is not the same as profitable. Read both axes.
The small-sample mirage
Notice of Default reads 13.6 doors and $153k gross from 8 deals. Directional, not bankable. Act on high-confidence rows first.
Three levers move the number.
What you pull, where you pull it, and which signal you trust.
1. Stack complementary owner signals
Two mild signals on the same owner multiply. The combo beats both parents.
Combining owner situations makes the list more efficient. Stacking distress on top of the AI score does the opposite: 48.4 doors versus 30.6 for the score alone in the 922-deal backtest. The score already accounts for distress.
2. Move one ZIP over
Knox runs 105 to 586 doors per deal by ZIP: a 5.6x spread inside one county.
3. Trust strong signals, skip dead weight
A bad roof is a 5.6x signal. A bad driveway is dead weight.
The number ranks lists. The funnel times them.
Doors per deal measures effort. Funnel position tells you how fast a list pays and how crowded it is.
The full read blends four inputs: doors per deal, saturation, how hard the owner is to reach, and cycle speed.
Ranked by doors alone, the funnel reads upside down. The sharpest list is the most crowded. The heaviest one keeps producing because almost nobody works it.
We door knocked foreclosure lists and traction was strong. The same owners barely answered our calls: every investor in town dials that list. Saturated lists need a higher-quality touch.
Run all three at once. The top builds next quarter's pipeline, the middle feeds this month, the bottom pays fastest if you upgrade the touch. Build the top with First-to-Market Data; work deceased-owner lists with Deep Prospecting.
Where these numbers come from.
Every figure on this page traces to one master research file. Here is its recipe.
The window
Six complete months, December 2025 to May 2026. Single-family, off-market, sold to an investor. Knox and Blount counties, TN.
The supply
Live SiftMap list counts: the exact record count each lever returns today, pulled on an account with off-market AI provisioned.
The deals
Sold-to-investor transactions back-tested against each list. If the property sold to an investor and sat on your list, it counts.
The confidence
High-confidence rows are large enough samples to act on. Thin samples sit below a SPECULATIVE divider: directional only.
These numbers move with the window. The earlier 922-deal backtest set the curriculum band at 22.8 to 30.6 doors for AI 80 to 90; this window reads 25.3 to 32.0. The order never flips. Re-pull it quarterly.
Go deeper: the full Knox dataset.
Every Knox County row behind this page, straight from the master workbook. Blount, D4D, and the neighborhood view live in the sheet.
| Segment | Type | Deals | List size | Doors/deal | Tier | Median gross | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Absentee + Low Income | Combo | 51 | 1,779 | 34.9 | Strong | $42k | High |
| Bad Credit + Free & Clear | Combo | 44 | 1,783 | 40.5 | Volume | $59k | High |
| Free & Clear + Low Income | Combo | 60 | 2,524 | 42.1 | Volume | $56k | High |
| Absentee + Bad Credit | Combo | 33 | 1,413 | 42.8 | Volume | $54k | High |
| Free & Clear + Out-of-State | Combo | 50 | 2,599 | 52.0 | Volume | $36k | High |
| Bad Credit + Low Income | Combo | 45 | 2,486 | 55.2 | Volume | $56k | High |
| Bad Credit | List | 49 | 3,010 | 61.4 | Volume | $61k | High |
| Low Income | List | 69 | 4,298 | 62.3 | Volume | $54k | High |
| Absentee + Tax Delinquent | Combo | 27 | 1,717 | 63.6 | Volume | $72k | High |
| Tax Delinquent + Senior | Combo | 22 | 1,464 | 66.5 | Volume | $76k | High |
| Free & Clear + Tax Delinquent | Combo | 40 | 2,892 | 72.3 | Volume | $77k | High |
| Absentee + Free & Clear | Combo | 294 | 23,714 | 80.7 | Volume | $43k | High |
| Out-of-State | List | 54 | 4,381 | 81.1 | Volume | $25k | High |
| Tax Delinquent | List | 50 | 4,188 | 83.8 | Volume | $77k | High |
| Senior + Tired Landlord | Combo | 42 | 3,737 | 89.0 | Volume | $65k | High |
| Absentee + Out-of-State | Combo | 46 | 4,370 | 95.0 | Volume | $25k | High |
| Absentee | List | 345 | 36,551 | 105.9 | Volume | $33k | High |
| Free & Clear + Tired Landlord | Combo | 82 | 8,701 | 106.1 | Volume | $68k | High |
| Free & Clear | List | 500 | 61,153 | 122.3 | Volume | $54k | High |
| Tired Landlord | List | 102 | 12,666 | 124.2 | Volume | $72k | High |
| Absentee + Senior | Combo | 65 | 8,471 | 130.3 | Volume | $84k | High |
| Free & Clear + Senior | Combo | 165 | 27,724 | 168.0 | Volume | $62k | High |
| Senior | List | 232 | 46,041 | 198.5 | Volume | $63k | High |
| Absentee + High Equity | Combo | 30 | 8,548 | 284.9 | Volume | $10k | High |
| High Equity + Senior | Combo | 56 | 16,180 | 288.9 | Volume | $76k | High |
| High Equity | List | 193 | 68,886 | 356.9 | Volume | $54k | High |
| SPECULATIVE: small sample, directional only | |||||||
| Probate | List | 4 | 49 | 12.2 | Strong | $52k | Low |
| Notice of Default | List | 8 | 109 | 13.6 | Strong | $153k | Low |
| Other Lien | List | 3 | 99 | 33.0 | Strong | $73k | Low |
| Estate Sale | List | 2 | 80 | 40.0 | Volume | $45k | Low |
| Bankruptcy | List | 4 | 211 | 52.8 | Volume | $76k | Low |
| HOA Lien | List | 5 | 468 | 93.6 | Volume | $120k | Low |
| Out-of-State + Tired Landlord | Combo | 8 | 1,056 | 132.0 | Volume | $76k | Low |
| High Equity + Tired Landlord | Combo | 18 | 3,307 | 183.7 | Volume | $74k | Medium |
| Bad Credit + Out-of-State | Combo | 15 | 156 | 10.4 | Strong | -$5k | Low |
| Low Income + Out-of-State | Combo | 15 | 167 | 11.1 | Strong | -$5k | Low |
| Pre-Probate | List | 3 | 103 | 34.3 | Strong | -$24k | Low |
| AI cutoff | List size | Deals | Doors/deal | Lift | Coverage | Median gross |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AI >= 5 | 153,675 | 742 | 207.1 | 1.0x | 99.6% | $54k |
| AI >= 10 | 153,675 | 741 | 207.4 | 1.0x | 99.5% | $54k |
| AI >= 15 | 147,769 | 727 | 203.3 | 1.0x | 97.6% | $54k |
| AI >= 20 | 113,919 | 682 | 167.0 | 1.2x | 91.5% | $56k |
| AI >= 25 | 86,418 | 635 | 136.1 | 1.5x | 85.2% | $62k |
| AI >= 30 | 67,842 | 602 | 112.7 | 1.8x | 80.8% | $62k |
| AI >= 35 | 54,656 | 571 | 95.7 | 2.2x | 76.6% | $62k |
| AI >= 40 | 44,583 | 533 | 83.6 | 2.5x | 71.5% | $63k |
| AI >= 45 | 36,391 | 504 | 72.2 | 2.9x | 67.7% | $63k |
| AI >= 50 | 29,546 | 455 | 64.9 | 3.2x | 61.1% | $61k |
| AI >= 55 | 23,246 | 412 | 56.4 | 3.7x | 55.3% | $59k |
| AI >= 60 | 17,963 | 365 | 49.2 | 4.2x | 49.0% | $57k |
| AI >= 65 | 14,143 | 323 | 43.8 | 4.7x | 43.4% | $56k |
| AI >= 70 | 11,508 | 298 | 38.6 | 5.3x | 40.0% | $54k |
| AI >= 75 | 8,918 | 246 | 36.3 | 5.7x | 33.0% | $55k |
| AI >= 80 | 6,503 | 203 | 32.0 | 6.4x | 27.2% | $54k |
| AI >= 85 | 4,088 | 143 | 28.6 | 7.2x | 19.2% | $88k |
| AI >= 90 | 2,378 | 94 | 25.3 | 8.2x | 12.6% | $125k |
| AI >= 95 | 953 | 44 | 21.7 | 9.5x | 5.9% | $131k |
| ZIP | Deals | List size | Doors/deal | Median gross | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 37914 | 75 | 7,865 | 104.9 | $54k | High |
| 37917 | 85 | 9,101 | 107.1 | $87k | High |
| 37912 | 40 | 5,709 | 142.7 | $61k | High |
| 37921 | 62 | 9,521 | 153.6 | $105k | High |
| 37920 | 79 | 14,705 | 186.1 | $50k | High |
| 37919 | 47 | 8,785 | 186.9 | $22k | High |
| 37918 | 68 | 14,284 | 210.1 | $62k | High |
| 37923 | 30 | 8,039 | 268.0 | $45k | High |
| 37932 | 31 | 8,432 | 272.0 | $33k | High |
| 37938 | 23 | 6,819 | 296.5 | $37k | High |
| 37931 | 35 | 10,773 | 307.8 | $50k | High |
| 37934 | 30 | 9,997 | 333.2 | $108k | High |
| 37849 | 23 | 9,003 | 391.4 | $70k | High |
| 37922 | 24 | 14,071 | 586.3 | $28k | High |
| SPECULATIVE: incomplete supply or thin sample | |||||
| 37902 | 6 | 10 | 1.7 | $18k | Low |
| 37915 | 13 | 1,065 | 81.9 | $146k | Medium |
| 37909 | 19 | 3,764 | 198.1 | $26k | Medium |
| 37924 | 13 | 5,122 | 394.0 | $103k | Medium |
| 37721 | 13 | 5,187 | 399.0 | $41k | Medium |
| 37754 | 2 | 1,339 | 669.5 | n/a | Low |
| 37871 | 3 | 3,065 | 1021.7 | $2k | Low |
| 37806 | 1 | 1,196 | 1196.0 | $3k | Low |
| 37764 | 1 | 3,035 | 3035.0 | $30k | Low |
| 37916 | 7 | 326 | 46.6 | -$7k | Low |
High confidence rows are act-on-it samples. Rows below the SPECULATIVE divider are directional only. Sorted by doors per deal, most efficient first.
Six ways to misread it.
Reading effort without payoff
10.4 doors per deal sounds elite until the median gross is negative $5k. Always read both.
Trusting tiny samples
Downtown ZIP 37902 reads 1.7 doors per deal on a 10-record list. Six deals, no supply. Noise.
AND-stacking on the AI score
Owner combos improve efficiency (34.9). A distress filter stacked on the score worsens it: 48.4 versus 30.6 alone.
Ranking D4D one-to-one
D4D supply is estimated, metro-level, with no live list. It extends coverage; it does not compete on this metric.
Confusing doors with dials
Doors are records marketed. Dials are phone attempts, a separate Day 5 KPI: about 100 correct numbers per deal.
Ranking the funnel by one number
Notice of Default reads 13.6 but every dialer owns it. Senior reads 198.5 and keeps producing. Read saturation and cycle speed too.
What the number tells you to do.
The band picks the marketing mode. That is the whole point of measuring effort first.
Work it in precision mode
Small list, high intent. Click-to-dial, aggressive multi-touch, every record worked by name.
Niche Sequential Marketing →Work it in bulk mode
Big list, thin signal. Power dialer, cold call first, six to eight attempts before recycling.
Bulk Sequential Marketing →Narrow it before anyone dials
Cut by AI score or a second owner signal until the list is worth dialing.
SiftMap Mastery →Upgrade the touch
Foreclosure-grade lists read sharp and dial terribly: everyone runs them. Knock the door instead.
Foreclosure Analysis →Keep Going
5-Day Deal Flow Challenge
Next live cohort: Monday, August 24 to August 28
5 days live with Ty. 33 interactive modules. Save your seat in the next cohort. Already enrolled? Use this page as your between-session refresher.
Data Priority Pyramid
The framework this metric ranks. Lead with precision, add consistency, scale with coverage.
ToolSiftMap Mastery
Pull the levers on this page yourself: score cutoffs, distressor lists, filter layering.
MethodSold Properties Analysis
Compute doors per deal for any filter before you spend: the validation loop.
Top of funnelFirst-to-Market Data
County records pulled before any platform packages them: the pipeline layer of the funnel.
WhereMarket Finder Workflow
Pick the county before you price the pulls inside it.
DownloadKnox-Blount Master Workbook
The full research file: both counties, D4D, neighborhoods, deal-size, and methodology tabs.
ScaleAI-Powered Prospecting
The three scoring models behind the cutoff slider, and what they cost.